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Global growth shares are losing their lustre as ‘Trump Tariffs’ (and reciprocal action from US trade partners) threaten the economy. The impact of fresh import taxes could be devastating across a variety of industries.
I’ve lost none of my appetite for UK shares, although I’m more cautious with what I buy today. One way to protect myself is to choose counter-cyclical shares — and companies in traditionally defensive industries — whose earnings forecasts are boosted or unaffected by current economic conditions.
With this in mind, here are two great growth stocks I’m considering right now.
H&T Group
Pawnbrokers like H&T Group (LSE:HAT) tend to thrive during tough times like these. In fact, this Alternative Investment Market (AIM) operator said last month that “demand for our core pawnbroking product continues to grow, with particularly strong lending demand in the final ten weeks of the year, including record levels of new customers borrowing from us for the first time“.
With the cost-of-living crisis dragging on, City analysts are expecting earnings at H&T to rise 5% in 2025. Incidentally, this also leaves the company trading on a low price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 7.1 times.
The trading landscape is especially favourable for H&T today thanks to the gold price surge. Bullion hit new record highs above $3,151 per ounce earlier today, and is tipped by many to keep climbing as fears over the economic and geopolitical landscape rise.
On the downside, retailers like this face fresh cost pressures as the National Living Wage and National Insurance contributions rise. H&T thinks NI changes alone will result in a £2m hit each year.
But on balance, I still think the pawnbroker’s a great stock to consider in these tough times.
Chemring Group
Along with the broader defence sector, shares in Chemring Group (LSE:CHG) have increased in value following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
This specific FTSE 250 contractor has also rose strongly in February and March following a £1bn-plus takeover approach from Bain Capital. Yet based on current earnings forecasts it still offers decent value for money.
City analysts think earnings will rise 27% in the current financial year (to October 2025). This leaves it trading on a forward P/E ratio of 18.5 times and a P/E-to-growth (PEG) ratio of 0.7.
Any PEG below one suggests that a share is undervalued.
The stable nature of arms spending has made defence stocks traditional lifeboats in tough times like these. But the sector’s appeal is even greater today (in my opinion) as industry consolidation ramps up and global rearmament accelerates.
Chemring’s own order intake rose 187% in the year to stand at a record £1.4bn.
The company has commented that “with the new administration in the US pushing for significant increases in NATO defence spending and with EU member states recognising the critical need to scale up and co-ordinate defence production across Europe, the market opportunity for Chemring continues to grow“.
Reduced arms spending from the US remains a threat. But I believe on balance it’s worth serious consideration in geopolitically-uncertain times.
