Fred Thiel, CEO of Marathon Digital (MARA), stated in a recent interview that the Bitcoin mining sector will face a “reckoning” after the next halving. According to the expert, all miners that still rely entirely on electricity from fossil fuel sources will find themselves in a situation of severe crisis. On the contrary, those who diversify their business and embrace an energy mix will manage to survive the increase in global competition.
Let’s delve deeper into the discussion in this article and see how much MARA earns with Bitcoin mining.
MARA: the sustainability of mining after the next Bitcoin halving
According to the CEO of the mining company Marathon Digital (MARA), the next Bitcoin halving could wipe out many inexperienced miners from the market. What concerns Fred Thiel is not so much the continuous rise of the hashrate, which increases competitiveness and lowers revenues with the same computing power, but rather the increase in energy costs. In the coming years, the increase in electricity prices will force a reckoning for the entire industry.
In particular, with the halving of 2028, probably only those who do not rely entirely on conventional electrical energy will survive. Instead, all miners who implement a diversified energy mix, integrated with various renewable sources, will have a greater chance of surviving and thriving in the long term. As stated verbatim by Thiel on the matter:
“Those who fail to differentiate themselves will be relegated to being price takers in an increasingly competitive market“.
MARA has already adopted several initiatives to diversify the revenues of its business and reduce operating costs. Firstly, it has developed innovative solutions for recovering the heat from its ASICs, allowing it to be stored and resold in industrial processes. Recently, the company acquired a wind farm in Texas that would reduce energy costs in Bitcoin mining. In addition to this, further optimizations include doubling its computing capacity, entering the mining of the alternative currency Kaspa and some strategic investments in AI.
It is clear that the world of mining is evolving more and more until it necessarily integrates with other industries. All this will lead to the birth of a decentralized ecosystem in which Bitcoin mining will no longer be confined to huge data centers, but will become an integral part of different sectors, from building heating, to industrial processes, including farming and food processing. MARA, with its focus on energy optimization, is already positioning itself as a key provider of tools and technologies for this transformation.
How much can you earn from Bitcoin mining?
The statement from the CEO of MARA comes as the Bitcoin mining sector is already struggling to remain profitable after the recent halving of rewards. Several players have tried to diversify their income sources by diving into high-performance computing (HPC) and artificial intelligence (AI). But how much does a miner actually earn with just the activity of Bitcoin extraction?
To make a simple calculation, let’s take the computational power of Marathon Digital as a reference: according to Mempool Space, it currently manages 38.97 EH/s, which is about 5% of the entire network’s hashrate. Considering a price per single TH/s (0.000001 EH/s) of $0.053, according to the Bitcoin Hasprice Index from The Block, the extraction pool of MARA earns approximately $1.53 million daily.
Obviously, these data are approximate, as they do not take into account many variables that offer completely different results over time. Just to give an example, the hashprice was much lower in September 2024, while MARA had a hashrate lower than the current level. The revenues should then be offset by the industrial costs of the mining process, including energy consumption, hardware maintenance expenses, cooling costs, and personnel.
In any case, it is interesting to understand how it is possible to estimate the potential earnings of a mining company based on three key data points: the total network hashrate, the price of Bitcoin, and the miner’s computing power. However, Marathon actually earns much more than the $1.5 million calculated, as it also operates in other business sectors, as mentioned. According to its financial reports, in the fourth quarter of 2024, it would have recorded sales of $214.4 million, surpassing analysts’ estimates of $187.8 million.
Analysis of MARA Stock Price
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Since the last Bitcoin mining, the price of MARA, the US stock of the mining company Marathon Digital, has not attracted significant positive traction. In 2024, the stock’s quotations recorded a slight bull trend, with two rally attempts recorded in July and November, but they never managed to break the annual high at $34. From December onwards, MARA then erased all its speculative gains from the previous year, with a 60% bear to the current values at $12.45.
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The stock prices are now in a strong dip, well below the 50-week EMA and with an RSI trending towards the oversold zone, but leaving room for further bearish movements. At this point, however, it is likely that in the coming weeks there will be a chart reversal driven by the bulls. As of today, in post-market trading, MARA has increased by over 8% while Bitcoin closed yesterday’s session with a 4.2% drop.
Everything will also depend on the general trend of the stock market and the Bitcoin price action, which has a strong impact on the revenues of mining companies and consequently on the price of their respective stocks. If MARA manages to climb back above the psychological threshold of $20, it could open the doors to a new bull wave. On the contrary, if it does not show signs of recovery, in the short term it could even make a bear jump below the $10 support.
